Newsletter · Issue
The Santa Rally Is Here and 2025 Scorecards Are In 🎅
Twelve months ago, you Maniacs made bold calls about the economy, markets, and where the world was headed. Now the scorecards are in... and some of you deserve a victory lap.
Daniel Anderson
Editor, The Money Maniac
December 26, 2025
The Santa Rally Is Here and 2025 Scorecards Are In 🎅
Twelve months ago, you Maniacs made bold calls about the economy, markets, and where the world was headed. Now the scorecards are in... and some of you deserve a victory lap.
Daniel Anderson
December 26, 2025
Good morning, Maniacs!
Traders wait all year for the Santa Claus Rally, the final five trading days of the year and the first two of the next. And as of this week, we’re officially in the thick of it.
With jolly spirits and lighter trading volume, this stretch has historically averaged a 1.3% return, with stocks finishing higher nearly 80% of the time.
Even Goldman thinks the sleigh might be warming up: “Barring any major shocks, it will be hard to fight the overwhelmingly positive seasonal period we are entering.” 🎅📈
Today is a short, holiday edition (and the final send of 2025), so you can get back to leftovers, couch time, and strategically avoiding email until January.
Just two quick reflections before we turn the page:
How your 2025 predictions actually shook out
And where you think 2026 is headed next
Grab some eggnog, lock in your 2026 calls, and let’s finish strong. 👇
YEAR IN REVIEWHow Maniacs Predicted 2025 🔍
Twelve months ago, you Maniacs made bold calls about the economy, markets, and where the world was headed.
Now the scorecards are in… and some of you deserve a victory lap.
Where We Absolutely Nailed It
Recession odds: 68% said no recession. Correct.
Inflation: 69% said core PCE would not fall below 2%. Correct again (~2.8%).
Unemployment: 72% predicted unemployment would stay below 5% (currently ~4.6%).
Top performing sector: 38% picked tech. It was the most popular vote, and the right one.
Where Only a Few Saw It Coming
Fed rate cuts: Just 6% of you called three cuts.
Highest-valued company: Only three readers — Corinna Summersett, David Goodall, and Jim Henderson — chose Nvidia. Legendary pick.
International leader: Nobody picked Korea… whose stock market is up 80% YTD, thanks to Samsung (+110%) and SK Hynix (+230%).
Where We Were… Close
GDP growth: Only 31% predicted the current 2–2.5% range. Most expected 1–2%.
Federal deficit: 56% thought the deficit/GDP would increase, but it actually fell from 6.4% to 5.5%.
S&P performance:
56% expected a 0-10% rise.
38% expected a 10-20% rise.
The index is now up 17%, boosted by the Mag 7, which 63% correctly expected to outperform.
Small-cap vs. large-cap: Readers expected small-cap growth stocks to outperform, but large-cap growth stocks came out ahead.
Bitcoin & gold: 56% correctly said BTC would not hit $150K. Meanwhile, gold blew past expectations, smashing well past $3,000, as 44% had predicted.
YEAR AHEADHow Maniacs See 2026 🔮
The 2026 Crystal Ball Challenge is officially live, and I want to hear from you!
This is your chance to call your shot on what happens next across the economy, the markets, and a few wildcards. It’s a quick, two-minute survey that’s all about your gut feelings.
Throughout the year, I’ll track the results, highlight the sharpest calls, and call out emerging trends.
Plus, when 2026 wraps up, the reader with the strongest scorecard earns the ultimate title: THE Money Maniac of 2026.