💰 Don't Put Your Health Plan On Autopilot

THE MAIN EVENTDon't Put Your Health Plan On Autopilot 😴

Your health plan is about to get more expensive.

Employers expect benefit costs to climb 11% in 2027 if they change nothing. Even after planned cuts, the 8.2% increase would be the biggest since 2003. Much of that will reach workers through larger paycheck deductions, higher deductibles, or both.

Open enrollment is your annual chance to push back. The trick is to compare plans using actual dollars, not whichever deductible feels safest.

The Low-Deductible Trap 🤦

In one large worker study, 61% chose a low-deductible plan that could never outperform a cheaper option, even if they used the maximum amount of care.

In one example, the low-deductible plan cost $528 more a year in premiums to save, at most, $250 on the deductible.

That does not mean high-deductible plans always win. It means some people pay more in extra premiums than they could possibly save through lower deductibles.

Even worse, only 23% switched the following year. Confusion is expensive, and the mistake renews annually.

Do The Actual Math 🧮

For each available health plan, calculate:

Annual premium payments + your share of medical bills − employer HSA/HRA contribution = net cost

Your benefits calculator can estimate what your regular appointments, prescriptions, tests, and other care would cost under each option.

Let's say a year of care would cost you $1,200 under a PPO and $1,800 under an HSA plan:

• PPO: ($60 × 26 paychecks) + $1,200 = $2,760

• HSA plan: ($35 × 26 paychecks) + $1,800 − $1,000 employer contribution = $1,710

The HSA plan saves $1,050 in a normal year.

Now replace those care estimates with each plan's out-of-pocket maximum:

• PPO: ($60 × 26) + $4,000 = $5,560

• HSA plan: ($35 × 26) + $7,000 − $1,000 = $6,910

In a nightmare medical year, the PPO saves $1,350.

That is the real choice. The HSA plan rewards a quiet year, while the PPO saves you in an expensive one.

It may seem tedious, but this exercise is worth 30 minutes. The cheapest-looking plan often isn't the cheapest plan to actually use.

Put The Tax Breaks To Work 💰

Once you choose a plan, make the related accounts earn their keep.

HSA: The 2027 limits are $4,500 for individual coverage and $9,000 for family coverage. The money goes in tax-free, grows tax-free, and comes out tax-free for medical expenses.

Yet only 18% of holders invest it. (I am the 18%. Shoutout to HSA Bank.)

Maxing out a family HSA means saving $750 a month. Invest $250 of that for 20 years at 7%, and it could become $130,000. Invest the full amount, and it could reach $391,000. Run your own numbers here.

FSA: Roughly half of participants forfeited money in one FSA study, losing $441 on average. If you still have money sitting there, blow the last few dollars on FSA-eligible sunscreen, pain relievers, and contact solution before December 31. Then contribute more conservatively next year.

Dependent-care FSA: Parents can set aside up to $7,500 for eligible care. That saves ~$2,224 in federal and payroll taxes for someone in the 22% bracket. Just compare it with the child-care credit first, because the same expenses can't qualify for both.

Before You Hit Submit 📅

Three final checks before you lock anything in:

1) Know when the clock runs out.

Your employer has its own deadline. Medicare runs October 15 to December 7, and the federal Marketplace runs November 1 to January 15.

2) Search the names that matter.

Check your doctors, local hospital, and every regular prescription. Don't assume the same insurance-company logo means the same network or drug coverage. GLP-1 users should pay especially close attention because some employers are dropping 2027 coverage.

3) Watch the subsidy cliff.

For a two-person household in the lower 48 states and D.C., Marketplace subsidies disappear entirely above $86,560 of 2027 income. If you're near the edge, pre-tax retirement or HSA contributions can pull you back under the line.

MARKET MOODThe Nasdaq's Round Trip To Nowhere 🎢

Winners

PTC

$PTC  ·  Cap $21.0B  ·  Week to date ▲ 34.5%
PTC makes software that engineers use to design products. Schneider Electric agreed to buy it for $205 a share in cash, in its biggest deal ever. Jefferies says AI fears let Schneider buy at a decade-low valuation.

Constellation Energy

$CEG  ·  Cap $101.0B  ·  Week to date ▲ 10.7%
Google signed a 20-year deal to buy 890 megawatts of new power from Constellation's nuclear plants. Constellation will spend more than $4.3 billion upgrading them to produce it.

Marathon Petroleum & Valero

$MPC / $VLO  ·  Cap $130.1B / $127.8B  ·  Week to date ▲ 9.7% / ▲ 9.2%
Two weeks ago, talk of a diesel export ban sank both refiners. Then Trump said, "We're not going to be doing the export ban," and a Gulf hurricane shut in 63% of the region's oil output.

Losers

Intel

$INTC  ·  Cap $566.0B  ·  Week to date ▼ 10.3%
Initially, Intel was the only named chipmaker for Terafab, until Musk said TSMC is in talks to join. Then a report that OpenAI's revenue runs $20 billion below estimates sank chip stocks.

Seagate Technology

$STX  ·  Cap $176.2B  ·  Week to date ▼ 8.7%
Seagate was already reeling from Toshiba's plan to double its hard-drive output. Then Bloomberg reported Seagate is in a bidding war with Toshiba to buy TDK's hard-drive head unit.

Caterpillar & Deere

$CAT / $DE  ·  Cap $366.0B / $176.0B  ·  Week to date ▼ 5.8% / ▼ 5.0%
The FTC and USDA asked the public for evidence of unfair practices by farm equipment makers and dealers, from dealer penalties to repair limits. Deere leads that business, but Caterpillar fell with it.

FAST FACTSBills, Ballparks, And Billionaires 🏟️

🚗 Car Payments Hit A Record $787: More than 1 in 5 new-car buyers now pay $1,000 or more a month, Edmunds says. [Read]

🛢️ Heating Oil Bills Jump 21%: Homes that heat with oil, mostly in the Northeast, should pay about $2,115 this winter. [Read]

⚾ Youth Baseball Can Cost $10K A Year: Frequent play has fallen 28% since 2014 for families under $100K and risen 21% for those above. [Read]

📉 Non-Tech Billionaires Lost $62 Billion: Tech fortunes added a record $845 billion through September while everyone else's shrank. [Read]

🏘️ Berkshire Keeps Buying Lennar: It added about $193 million more of the homebuilder last week, lifting its stake above 11%. [Read]

📊 3 Stocks Now Carry 21% Of The S&P 500: Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft make up the biggest share any 3 stocks have ever held. [Read]

🤖 Women Are Cooling On AI: Women's net view of AI sits at -1 versus +30 for men, a Morgan Stanley survey found. [Read]

THE ODDSLess Fear, More Fed 🎲

CHART OF THE WEEKOur Rent Glut Is Running Out 🏗️

For two years, renters in boomtowns had the upper hand. Builders flooded cities like Austin and Boise with new apartments, and landlords cut rents to fill them.

That's ending. Boise rents are rising at their fastest pace in years, and Wilmington and Charleston have flipped from falling to rising.

The reason is supply. Completions of new apartment buildings have fallen 57% from their 2024 peak, as higher rates make new projects harder to finance.

For context, shelter is about a third of CPI, and market rents tend to show up in it about a year later. A rebound now could keep inflation, and rates, stickier into 2027.

WORDS TO REMEMBERThe Crisis Is Always Late 🧠