Newsletter Ā· Issue
š° Maniac Minute: 5% Yields =Ģø 5-Star Retirement
With Treasury yields over 5%, the appeal is obvious: low-risk income, tax advantages, and a big dose of simplicity.

Daniel Anderson
Editor, The Money Maniac
May 26, 2025
š° Maniac Minute: 5% Yields =Ģø 5-Star Retirement
With Treasury yields over 5%, the appeal is obvious: low-risk income, tax advantages, and a big dose of simplicity.
Good morning, Maniacs!
Tariffs, deficits, and nuclear reactorsāoh my. š§Ø
Markets hit the brakes after a week of tweet-fueled turbulence. Treasury yields popped, nuclear stocks soared, Bitcoin hit a new all-time highāand analysts say we may be entering a true āstock pickerās market.ā
Also inside: why Fannie and Freddie flew, FICO got whacked, and I donāt recommend going all-in on Treasuries (even at 5%).
Letās dive in! š

Market Recap š
Just when things looked stable, the macro mayhem came roaring back. The Dow and Nasdaq each dropped 2.5%, while the S&P 500 fell 2.6% across a four-day losing streak.
First came the debt bomb.
Trumpās ābig, beautifulā bill passed the House, and the $3.8 trillion projected deficit rattled bond markets. Treasury yields spiked, with the 10-year closing at 4.51% and the 30-year touching 5.15% before easing to 5.04%.
Then came the tariff threats.
Trump floated a 50% levy on all EU imports starting June 1, accusing the bloc of āstallingā and ātaking advantageā of the U.S.
He also took aim at Apple, warning that iPhones built abroad could face a 25% tariff. Apple fell 3%, dragging down tech and reigniting trade war jittersājust days after China talks had calmed markets.
As headlines flew, markets scrambled:
ā¢ļø Nuclear stocks exploded. Oklo, NuScale, and uranium miners jumped as Trump signed orders to accelerate reactor approvals.
š Solar stocks got torched. Sunrun, Enphase, and SolarEdge cratered after the House bill proposed axing rooftop solar tax credits.
š„ Gold rallied as a safe haven investment amid rising deficits and geopolitical stress.
āæ Bitcoin broke a new all-time high, driven by record ETF inflows and drying exchange supply.
And hereās one more shift to watch: stock correlations are breaking down.
With macro shocks hitting industries unevenly, analysts say we may be entering a true stock pickerās marketāwhere company-specific earnings and catalysts finally matter more than momentum and headlines.
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Winners & Losers š
This weekās biggest market moves had one thing in common: policy. Whether it was tariffs, trade, or talk of reform, government intervention sent stocks flyingāor flailing.
Winners
1. Federal National Mortgage Association ($FNMA) ā Market Cap: $12.7B (+62.1%)
$FNMA ( ā² 0.39% ) (aka Fannie Mae) logged its best week since 2009 after Trump floated plans to bring Fannie and Freddie Mac back to public markets. The government-sponsored enterprises have been under federal control since the 2008 housing crash.
Trump now says theyāre āthrowing off a lot of CASH and the time would seem to be right.ā Somewhere, Bill Ackman is celebratingāFannie is up 235% YTD, Freddie 137%.
2. United States Steel ($X) ā Market Cap: $11.8B (+28.9%)
$X ( ā¼ 0.02% ) soared after Trump announced the company would āREMAIN in Americaā and keep its HQ in Pittsburgh. The original $14.1B takeover by Japanās Nippon Steel was blocked by Biden on national security grounds. But Trumpās statement suggests a restructured deal may be back on the table.
Details were light, but Trumpās framing as a āpartnershipā boosted confidence that a version of the deal will move forward.
Losers
1. Fair Isaac Corporation ($FICO) ā Market Cap: $41.2B (-23.0%)
$FICO ( ā² 3.27% ) , the company behind the FICO credit score, plunged after Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte questioned last yearās price hikes. He also raised concerns about the need to pull scores from all three credit bureaus on mortgage applications.
Despite a 41% increase in the FICO score fee (from $3.50 to $4.95), FICO insists itās economical at under 1% of closing costs. Still, the stock sank as the prospect of fewer score pulls threatens future revenue.
2. Deckers Outdoor ($DECK) ā Market Cap: $15.1B (-21.0%)
$DECK ( ā¼ 4.56% ) , the parent of Hoka and UGG, dropped hard after lowering Q1 guidance and pulling its full-year forecast.
The company cited āmacro uncertaintyā and shifting trade policy, likely tied to new tariffs. With a major manufacturing footprint in China and revenue guidance now trailing estimates, investors stepped to the sidelines fast.

Donāt Lock Yourself Into A 5% Future ā ļø
With Treasury yields over 5%, the appeal is obvious: low-risk income, tax advantages, and a big dose of simplicity.
But before you toss your whole net worth into a 30-year bond, letās talk about what that really means for your future.
I could sell everything & have $2 million
Put it all in a 30 year treasury yielding 5%
Thatād be $100k/year in passive income
Iād pay zero state tax on any of that
And get my $2 mill back after 30 years
This is so damn tempting š¤
ā Barbell Financial šŖš»š° (@BarbellFi)
11:57 AM ⢠May 19, 2025
Tempting? Sure. Smart? Not so fast.
This strategy completely ignores the silent killer: inflation.
Letās assume the Fed nails its 2% inflation target. That $100K/year slowly becomes worth less and less in todayās dollars:
Year 1: $98,039
Year 10: $82,035
Year 30: just $55,207
And your $2 million principal? Itāll be worth $1.1 million in todayās dollars when you finally get it back. Translation: your lifestyle erodesāevery single year.
Now compare that to a more traditional mix: 60% stocks and 40% bonds (at 5% yields).
In this case, you invest $1.2M in stocks, $800K in Treasuries, and withdraw the same annual income as the āsafeā plan. But hereās the difference: your equities compound for three decades.
How does that change things, you ask?
Total income: The same $2.2M over 29 years
Ending balance: Not $1.1M⦠but $7.4M
Thatās a $6+ million difference!
Bottom line: Treasuries have their place. But turning your entire portfolio into a āsafeā 5% annuity isnāt retirementāitās regression. Unless youāre ultra-wealthy or balancing out risk elsewhere, itās one of the most expensive mistakes you can make.
What do you think? Should I do more Tweet Teardowns? Reply and let me know!

Worth The Read š
š Does the U.S. debt downgrade matter? Fidelity analysts say growing deficits and rising interest payments could chip away at confidence over time.
šø David Rubenstein says debt beats tariffs as the bigger long-term risk. The Carlyle co-founder warns that Americaās reserve currency status isnāt guaranteed.
š Trumpās MAGA savings accounts promise every newborn $1,000ābut are they better than a 529 plan?
š¤ Elon Musk says heās not going anywhere, pledging to stay on as Tesla CEO for at least five more years.
𧬠23andMe gets scooped up by Regeneron in a $256M fire sale. The deal includes the firmās genetic database, but not the pharmacy and telehealth business.
š Epic Universe brings dragons to life with animatronics, drone flights, and immersive worlds. Universalās $7B bet might just redefine the future of theme parks.
š Home prices may finally fall after years of relentless gains. Rising inventory and buyer pushback could lead to the first dip since 2023.

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The Week Ahead š
After a long weekend, markets jump straight into durable goods, Nvidiaās earnings, a key GDP revision, and the Fedās preferred inflation gaugeāall within four trading days.
Monday
Markets closed for Memorial Day
Tuesday
Earnings from PDD and AutoZone
April Durable Goods Orders (est. -6.8% MoM)
March Case-Shiller Home Prices (est. 4.2% YoY)
Wednesday
Earnings from Nvidia, Salesforce, HP, Pure Storage, Dickās Sporting Goods, U-Haul, e.l.f Beauty, Abercrombie, and Macyās
May FOMC Minutes
Thursday
Earnings from Costco, Dell, Marvell, Ulta, Burlington, MongoDB, Best Buy, Gap, Bath & Body Works, Foot Locker, American Eagle, and Kohlās
Q1 GDP Growth Rate (second est. -0.3% QoQ)
Friday
April PCE Price Index (est. 0.2% MoM, 2.2% YoY)
April Core PCE Price Index (est. 0.2% MoM, 2.6% YoY)
April Personal Income (est. 0.4% MoM)
April Personal Spending (est. -0.1% MoM)

Thatās it for today! If you made it this far, youāre exactly why I do this.
All I ask for? A little feedback. Your comments, questions, and suggestions help me improveāand shape future editions.
Just hit reply or leave a quick review below. It helps more than you know.
Keep stacking,
The Money Maniac šø
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DISCLAIMER: The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets. All opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change without notice. Please do your own research or consult with a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.



